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Cepr euro area business cycle dating committee

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Most of the recessions identified by the Committee’s procedures consist of two or more quarters of declining real GDP, but declining real GDP is not the only indicator used.As an example, the Committee has identified the period from the first quarter in 1980 to the third quarter in 1982 as a recession, despite the fact that real GDP was growing in some quarters during that episode and that real GDP was higher at the end of the recession than at the beginning.and the academic sense used most often in economics, which is defined operationally, referring specifically to the contraction phase of a business cycle, with two or more consecutive quarters of GDP contraction. In his separate dissent to the majority and minority opinions of the FCIC, Commissioner Peter J.Under the academic definition, the recession ended in the United States in June or July 2009. shadow banking system (i.e., non-depository financial institutions such as investment banks) had grown to rival the depository system yet was not subject to the same regulatory oversight, making it vulnerable to a bank run. Many of these securities were backed by subprime mortgages, which collapsed in value when the U. housing bubble burst during 2006 and homeowners began to default on their mortgage payments in large numbers starting in 2007. Wallison of the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) primarily blamed U. housing policy, including the actions of Fannie & Freddie, for the crisis.For details of the data used by the Committee, click here.Answers to some frequently asked questions can be found here.

It shows a recession from the quarter following the peak through the quarter of the trough (i.e.More information about this methodological change is available here.A companion paper written by Binnur Balkan for this Committee (available here) explores the impact this new method would have had on the past findings of this Committee.See Data Sources The financial press often states the definition of a recession as two consecutive quarters of decline in real GDP.How does that relate to your recession dating procedure?Although subject to a common monetary policy since 1999, they even now have heterogeneous institutions and policies.